There's still plenty of summer left...but are you interested to see if there's an early handle on what this WINTER may look like for Michiana? If we'll see more than our average snowfall in South Bend (81.8" per year with the highest annual amount being 172" in 1977-78!)...or less (lowest being 23.2" in 1948-49)...or do we not have a handle on it yet?
The Climate Prediction Center recently came out with a report saying that El Nino and La Nina will play little or even no roll in the global weather pattern through at least the end 2013. "Neutral" conditions look LIKELY through the end of the year...and they could continue right into the summer of 2014. That means neither a La Nina nor El Nino pattern will develop. Both of which play major roles on the weather patterns across the U.S. and the entire world for that matter.
The graph below shows the ENSO (El Nino/ Southern Oscillation Index)forecast computer models that the Climate Prediction Center can use to help base their forecast. It is a number that goes either above or below zero and it represents whether the world is in El Nino, La Nina, or in a neutral stage. A neutral forecast is represented by the index not going outside of .5°C from either side of zero. If the computer models have the ENSO diving into the negative numbers, that's considered La Nina with a -3° or lower considered to be a strong La Nina. The same can be said for El Nino which would be a positive number over .5°C with a strong El Nino above 3°.
All of these forecasting models place the ENSO within the half degree mark area
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What does this mean for us? Well honestly, not much. What this does is basically makes it harder to predict long-term weather patterns like lake effect snow systems impacting the great lakes. In case you're wondering...La Nina patterns typically produce MORE lake effect snow events with cool air diving SE with a strong jet stream over the Great Lakes.
At this point...with the amount of data we have taken from the global circulation...we can at least have a handle on the seasonal forecast for both a La Nina and La Nino. It's really up in the air if it's neutral. For example with El Nino, the southern U.S. will typically see above average rainfall while the northern U.S. will see below average precipitation. HOWEVER, that's not always the case. We use this index as a rule of thumb for climate, long-term forecasting due to typical patterns over long term data sets. Here is a peek at some of the "typical" conditions during both of these phases across North America.
More Info: South Bend climate history: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/CLI/SBN/history/climatedescription.php
But for those impatient readers...who must have an answer now. Here is what the 2014 Farmer's Almanac thinks:
But for those impatient readers...who must have an answer now. Here is what the 2014 Farmer's Almanac thinks:
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