Why I'm worries about 2011 flooding

Wyoming is no stranger to flooding. It is a natural occurence due to melting snowpack every spring. The last decade however, has been nothing short of record breaking. River crest data since 2000 for some locations is shown below:

   -  Saratoga: 2nd highest crest (10.16 ft) on 06/13/2010
   -  Encampment: 4th highest (7.67 ft) on 06/08/2010
   -  Savery: highest (7.10 ft) on 05/22/2008
                    2nd (6.55 ft) on 05/20/2010
                    3rd (6.53 ft) on 05/03/2009
                    4th (6.52 ft) on 06/08/2010
                    5th (6.20 ft) on 05/23/2006
   -  Laramie:  Highest recorded crest (6.60 ft) on 06/14/2010
                       2nd highest  (5.30 ft) on 06/08/2005
                       3rd (4.90 ft) on 06/08/2008
                       4th (4.70 ft) on 06/04/2003
                       5th (4.05 ft) on 06/06/2009
   -  Dubois: 5th highest (5.14 ft) on 06/02/2009
   -  Riverton (Little Wind): Highest (11.91) ft on 06/09/2010
   -  Buffalo: 2nd highest (6.29 ft) on 05/22/2008
                     4th highest (6.12 ft) on 06/08/2010
   -  Kaycee: highest (8.74 ft) on 05/21/2010
   -  Casper:  3rd highest (7.19 ft) on 06/25/2010
 
It is troubling to see these areas have their highest flood levels occur this frequently. There are a few patterns with this data: These crests are among the highest recorded (as far back as the 1800s), they occur during late May - early June, and they've occurred within the last 10 years (in some cases only last year). There is also one loose pattern that will be the topic of a future blog. During the months from March to July of the above years of flooding; the El Nino/Nina pattern has been either neutral to a weak La Nina. This year we have been under a strong La Nina. Source: NOAA. There must be a reason for the recent surge of moisture over the state during the winter and spring months.

We are now entering the 1st full week of June. Already some areas along the North Platte are showing signs of a crest. The reason I'm worred about this year's flooding is simple. The 2010-2011 winter season saw record amounts of snowfall pack atop our mountain ranges. Snow-to-water equivalent levels are some of the highest ever recorded. That moisture will eventually melt and flow into our streams & rivers. There is a possibility some of our rivers may see some of the highest crests on record. Much of the snowpack has yet to melt.

-------------------------- Current Water Levels, Forecasts & Flood Impacts --------------------------


To see Wyoming's current water levels, click here: State

For areas currently (June 7) under moderate flood stage: Ft. Steele
                                                                                      Saratoga

For areas currently under minor flood stage: Laramie
                                                                   Savery
                                                                   Encampment

For areas currently below flood stage/action stage: Slater
                                                                             Buffalo
                                                                             Kaycee
                                                                             Dubois
                                                                             Casper